The result is in line with an earlier poll, but the Republican’s 2-point lead is less than the margin of error.
By Nigel Jaquiss/Oregon Journalism Project
With less than two months until the Nov. 3 general election, a new poll shows the Republican nominee, state Sen. Christine Drazan (R-Canby), with a slender lead over incumbent Gov. Tina Kotek, a Democrat.
The Sept. 11 poll, conducted by DHM Research of Portland for the business-backed group Grow Oregon, shows that a sampling of 600 likely voters currently favors Drazan by a razor-thin 2% margin, 45% to 43%, with Brett Smith, the Pacific Green Party candidate, drawing 4%.
“This poll confirms what we already see on the ground: Oregonians are ready for change, and they see Christine as the leader who can deliver it,” said Trey Rosser, Drazan’s campaign strategist. “Four years ago, Tina Kotek made big promises on homelessness, housing, education, and affordability, but today, Oregonians are paying more, getting less, and watching the same problems get worse.”
That 2% Drazan lead is less than the poll’s 4% margin of error, which means the race is a toss-up. History certainly suggests Drazan still has a steep hill to climb. Democrats have won every Oregon governor’s race since 1986, and Kotek defeated Drazan four years ago 47% to 43.5%, with unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson claiming nearly 9% of the vote.
The DHM poll, which OJP obtained unofficially, shows why Kotek, the former longtime House speaker, is vulnerable: 59% of respondents said they disapprove of her performance, while just 37% approve. That negative characterization mirrors their response to the question of whether Oregon is on the right track: 58% said “wrong track.”
The biggest issues on voters’ minds, the poll found, are overall affordability (87%) followed by K–12 education (85%) and housing affordability (78%). Although the debate raging over data centers has generated a lot of headlines and heat lately, only 50% of respondents said the issue was “extremely/very” important to them, making it far less of an issue than taxes (77%), homelessness (77%) or crime (73%).
DHM pollster John Horvick said the results of the survey were broadly consistent with results of an earlier poll the Drazan campaign released. Horvick also noted that polls showed Drazan ahead in 2022 until the final month, just as Republican challenger Knute Buehler initially polled better than Democratic incumbent Gov. Kate Brown in 2018. In both cases, however, the Democratic candidate rode a late wave to victory.
Kotek’s campaign said it is confident the outcome will be the same this year. “There are still a lot of voters who are undecided in this race [13%, according to DHM], but the choice couldn’t be any clearer,” said Federico Araujo, Kotek’s campaign spokesman. “Christine Drazan is ready to open the door to Trump’s agenda, and Gov. Kotek is fighting every day to protect Oregonians from federal overreach and harm.”
Both Kotek and Drazan have unleashed a barrage of television ads that will increase in frequency as Election Day approaches, with Kotek’s team trying to tie Drazan to President Donald Trump and highlighting her anti-abortion stance. Drazan, on the other hand, is focusing her message on the economy, government accountability and taxes.
Campaign finance filings with the Oregon Secretary of State’s Office show Kotek is currently in a better position to fill the airwaves with her message: She has raised nearly $12 million since the beginning of last year and has $8.2 million on hand.
Drazan has raised $9.4 million over the same period but has just $2.4 million on hand. That’s in large part because she faced a competitive primary against state Rep. Ed Diehl (R-Stayton) and former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley, while Kotek did not have an opponent in the primary.
Kotek spent about $30 million to get elected in 2022, and both campaigns expect a similarly expensive contest this time.
Kotek and Drazan will debate for the first time this year on Oct. 1 at 6 pm on the University of Oregon campus. OJP, Lookout Eugene–Springfield, KVAL-TV and UO’s School of Journalism and Communication will sponsor the event. KVAL will broadcast the debate locally and stream it statewide.
This story was produced by the Oregon Journalism Project, a nonprofit investigative newsroom for the state of Oregon and is used with permission.